Hillary holds a lead over John McCain in a GE matchup:
PRINCETON, NJ -- John McCain and Barack Obama are now virtually tied at 46% to 45% when registered voters nationally are asked for whom they would vote next November if these were the two presidential nominees, while Hillary Clinton maintains a 48% to 44% margin over McCain in a hypothetical Clinton-McCain matchup.
This information is not new. Polls showing nearly the same results have been widely available for at least three weeks. Thus, President Clinton's recent comments to voters in South Dakota and Montana aren't off-the-wall. I've known about these polls; other bloggers have known about them (and published the findings as often as I have). Where the hell are the media?
UPDATE II: Here's how Clinton fares against McCain in states she has won during primary season:
PRINCETON, NJ -- In the 20 states where Hillary Clinton has claimed victory in the 2008 Democratic primary and caucus elections (winning the popular vote), she has led John McCain in Gallup Poll Daily trial heats for the general election over the past two weeks of Gallup Poll Daily tracking by 50% to 43%. In those same states, Barack Obama is about tied with McCain among national registered voters, 45% to 46%.
[SNIP]
...in the 28 states and the District of Columbia where Obama has won a higher share of the popular vote against Clinton in the 2008 Democratic primaries and caucuses, there is essentially no difference in how Obama and Clinton each fare against McCain...
...Thus, the principle of greater primary strength translating into greater general-election strength -- while apparently operative for the states Clinton has won -- does not seem to apply at the moment to states Obama has won.
[SNIP]
And there are the swing states...
Clinton's 2008 swing-state victories include Nevada, Pennsylvania, Ohio, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Arkansas, and -- based solely on popular vote (not delegates) -- Florida and Michigan (her swing states total 105 electoral votes). Thus far in May, Gallup has found Clinton leading McCain in these states by six percentage points, 49% to 43%. McCain holds the slight edge over Obama in these states, 46% to 43%. Thus, as of today, Clinton is clearly the stronger Democratic candidate in this cluster of states where she beat Obama in the popular vote.
Here's the bottom line:
Clinton's primary victories (which include key battleground - or swing states) - translate to 300 electoral votes in a GE (and she beats John McCain in these states, while Obama does not).
Obama's primary and caucus victories, however, translate to just 224 electoral votes and he is not able to translate "his" wins to electoral votes in a GE. Nor does he outperform Clinton (vs. McCain) in these states.
NOTE TO SUPERDELEGATES: Electability, electability, electability...are you paying attention?
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